Lectures

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  1. What is Human Progress?

  In our introductory lecture, Dr. Marian Tupy outlines human progress—what it means, whether evidence supports it, and why pessimism persists despite clear improvements in human well-being. We define progress in humanistic terms, including longer life, better health, greater wealth, peace, freedom, and knowledge, while acknowledging alternative religious, romantic, and philosophical views. Tracing its evolution from ancient cyclical worldviews to modern secular ideas, we conclude that progress is real but neither inevitable nor utopian, requiring ongoing problem-solving, strong institutions, and human agency.
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  2. Evidence of Progress

  In lecture two, we examine evidence of human progress using data from Our World in Data, highlighting dramatic improvements over the past 200 years. We explore the surge in global GDP and its strong links to longer life expectancy, better education, reduced child mortality, greater happiness, and expanded access to healthcare and electricity. Dr. Tupy shows that extreme poverty has fallen from about 90% to 10% since 1820, alongside major gains in health and technology. While progress is widespread, he notes persistent challenges—particularly in sub-Saharan Africa—as well as the environmental costs of industrialization.
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  3. Further Evidence of Progress

  In lecture three, we dive deeper to survey wide-ranging evidence of human progress. We see how historical data show major gains in calorie availability, life expectancy, reduced working hours, and declining child labor and violence. The discussion also highlights advances in democracy, human rights, and gender equality, alongside environmental improvements such as reforestation and more efficient agriculture. While admitting that challenges like deforestation and plastic pollution persist, the discussion reveals that humanity has grown more compassionate and capable of addressing future global problems.
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  4. Progressophobia

  In lecture four, we examine progressophobia—the tendency to resist recognizing human progress despite strong evidence of global improvement. We explore its psychological roots, including negativity bias shaped by evolution, as well as the role of modern media in amplifying negative narratives. We also discuss cognitive shortcuts like the availability heuristic, which leads people to overestimate the frequency of dramatic or traumatic events. The lecture concludes by addressing widespread public misperceptions and their political consequences, arguing that misunderstanding progress can erode support for the institutions and values that sustain human flourishing.
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  5. Theories of Progress

  In lecture five, we learn about theories explaining humanity's dramatic progress in recent centuries. The discussion covers institutional factors, economic theories, scientific explanations, cultural influences, and geographic factors. Dr. Tupy concludes by identifying four key interrelated drivers: institutions that protect property and limit elite predation, expanding domestic and global market competition, knowledge systems that promote scientific discovery, and a culture of openness, optimism, and skepticism that allows questioning of authority and rewards innovation.
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  6. Progress Through Innovation

  In lecture six, we discuss how human progress stems from innovations—the tested and adopted use of ideas and inventions in real practice. We distinguish between ideas, inventions, and innovations, then examine key developments in Europe from the second millennium including chartered towns, universities, the scientific method, mass printing, representative assemblies, and abolition of slavery. Dr. Tupy emphasizes that these interconnected innovations created an increasingly open environment that encouraged initiative, cooperation, and long-term planning, ultimately establishing the foundation for sustained human progress and economic growth.
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  7. Competition & Modern Prosperity

  In lecture seven, we consider whether the unprecedented surge in innovation over the last 1000 years represents a unique period in human history that has driven global progress. We examine 400 of history’s most important innovations across economic, moral, scientific, and institutional spheres, showing that innovation rates rose from about 1.3 per century in ancient times to 95 per century in modernity—a 74-fold increase. The discussion argues that Europe’s political fragmentation and interstate competition fostered innovation, unlike more centralized empires, helping unlock modern prosperity, while leaving open the question of whether this progress is permanent or a temporary “efflorescence” in human history.
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  8. Critiques & Future of Progress

  In our eighth and final lecture, we investigate critiques of human progress from religious, collectivist, romantic, environmental, and declinist perspectives, and consider whether there are limits to human advancement. Dr. Tupy introduces “solutionism,” the idea that humans are fundamentally problem-solving beings who have repeatedly overcome constraints like resource scarcity and technological limits through innovation. Our course concludes by considering a possible “intelligence age” driven by artificial intelligence, where growing mastery over biology, energy, space, and matter could enable a “protopia”—continuous improvement rather than a fixed utopia—while stressing the need to preserve the institutions and values that sustain progress.